The two numbers
On a team card or member lane you will see something like μ 28.40 · σ 2.10. Those Greek letters are just labels for two different jobs. One ranks the lineup or lane. The other says how much we still have to learn.
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The rating
μ · Mu
Our current best guess at how strong this lineup or lane is. Higher sits higher on the board. This is the number the standings are sorted by.
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The deviation
σ · Sigma
How much that guess might still move. A wide number means we have not seen enough games in that lane or lineup. A tight number means the guess has settled.
The guess
Think of μ as the number you would write on a chalkboard if you had to pick one. Higher means stronger. After enough games, this is the number that should match the table you actually see on club night.
New lineups start around 25. Wins push it up. Losses pull it down. Beating a strong lineup moves it more than beating a weak one — and the other way around.
The wobble
A single ranking pretends we are equally sure about everyone. We are not. A pair that has played all season has a small σ — the guess has settled. A pair that formed last Tuesday has a large σ — they might be brilliant, or they had one lucky night.
High σ is not a penalty. It means give them a few more games. Low σ means this is about who they are.
Reading them together
The dot is the guess. The shaded band is the wobble. If a new pair sits above your veterans after one game, look at the band before you rewrite the club hierarchy. The board is allowed to be a little loud at the start. It quietens as people play.
Guess and wobble
A new lineup or lane starts in the middle with a wide wobble. One good night is not a season.
A familiar pair with a tight band. We have seen them enough to trust the guess.
Lineups and member lanes
Dyst projects skill two ways. Team fingerprints rate exact rosters — Alice and Carol together is one card. Member lanes rate you in a match shape like 2v2 across changing partners; 2v2 and 2v2v2 are separate lanes. Memberships carry permissions only — there is no single overall member score.
What a match does
Scores become win, lose, or draw. An 11–1 and an 11–9 are the same for the rating. Symmetric games move the team cards and member lanes that apply; uneven or mixed roster sizes stay in history without shifting μ/σ. Only the competitors in that match move; everyone else stays put. μ shifts based on who beat whom. σ usually shrinks a little — we learned something.
You do not need to run the algorithm. Record the match. The board updates.
At the club
When someone asks why a new pair is sitting above the regulars:
- 01
μ is the ranking on that card or lane — team fingerprint or member playlist.
- 02
σ is how unsure we still are. If it is still wide, they have not settled yet.
- 03
There is no single overall member score — only the lineups and lanes that actually played.
Open a board tonight
Create an organisation, invite the table, record the first match.